Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DOLORES-21 in Mexico from 18 Jun 2021 09:00 UTC to 19 Jun 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DOLORES-21

in Mexico

19 Jun 2021 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DOLORES-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	111 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 Jun 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 19 Jun 2021 09:00 - 19 Jun 2021 18:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	111 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.6 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Jun 2021 09:00	102	1.4 million	No people	Mexico
2	18 Jun 2021 15:00	111	2 million	No people	Mexico
3	18 Jun 2021 21:00	102	4.6 million	No people	Mexico
4	19 Jun 2021 03:00	102	2.9 million	No people	Mexico
5	19 Jun 2021 09:00	111	2.6 million	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Jun 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.4, -101.6
2	18 Jun 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.7, -102.5
3	18 Jun 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	460000 people	15.6, -102.3
4	19 Jun 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.1 million people	16.3, -102.8
5	19 Jun 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	980000 people	17, -103.1
5	19 Jun 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	2.1 million people	18.6, -103.6	Mexico
5	20 Jun 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.4, -104.4	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Michoacan	Mexico
Guerrero	Mexico
Colima	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Coalcomán	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	10000 people
Petatlán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Tecomán	Colima	Mexico	City	75000 people
Armería	Colima	Mexico	City	16000 people
Colima	Colima	Mexico	Major city	130000 people
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Tecpan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	14000 people
Tecalitlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	13000 people
Tamazula de Gordiano	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Ciudad Guzmán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Sayula	Jalisco	Mexico	City	25000 people
Autlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	40000 people
Atoyac	Jalisco	Mexico	City	5300 people
Zacoalco de Torres	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Cocula	Jalisco	Mexico	City	14000 people
Ameca	Jalisco	Mexico	City	35000 people
Ahulalulco de Mercado	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Etzatlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	13000 people
Amatitán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	9400 people
Ixtlán del Río	Nayarit	Mexico	City	21000 people
Ahuacatlán	Nayarit	Mexico	City	6300 people
San Martín de Bolaños	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Lazaro Cardenas	LZC	12	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International	ZIH	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Coahuayana		61				0
Colima	CLQ	723	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Tuxpan		1225	Mil.	Paved	No	6700
Ciudad Guzman		1520				0
Autlan		884				0
Tepic	TPQ	960	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Lazaro Cardenas	MXLZC	Mexico
Manzanillo	MXZLO	Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Jose M. Morelos	Balsas	1968
	Trojes	Coahuayana	1994
Basilio Vadillo	Basilio Vadillo	San Migue	1973
	Trigomil	Ayuquila	1993
	Tacotan	Amuquila	1958
	La Vega	Teuchitlan	1956

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Bucerias, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Jun 2021 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (25 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 19 Jun 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Jun 2021 16:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.2
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.2
	19 Jun 2021 19:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	19 Jun 2021 18:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	19 Jun 2021 19:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	19 Jun 2021 16:00	Maruata	Mexico	0.2
	19 Jun 2021 18:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	19 Jun 2021 09:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Calvario	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 09:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Barrio Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Zihuatanejo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 09:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 06:00	Tierra Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Lagunillas	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Coyuquillas	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Nuxco	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 05:00	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 21:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 21:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.